An hour after polls have closed in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the final result is done - the Liberal Party of Canada has won reelection, but whether the party has won a minority or a majority is unclear.
The Canadian Press, along with several other Canadian media outlets including The Reminder, can call the election in favour of the Liberal Party, which is either leading or elected in 145 ridings as of 9:30 p.m. Monday night. By contrast, the Conservative Party of Canada sits at 107 seats, with the Bloc Quebecois in third with 26 seats and the NDP with 25 seats. The Green Party currently is ahead or elected in one seat. No other parties are leading or likely to be elected as of 9:30 p.m. Monday night.
Locally, NDP incumbent Niki Ashton is well ahead so far in northern Manitoba, while northern Saskatchewan remains a three-way dogfight.
Ashton has taken an early lead with 24 out of 157 polls reporting in Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, sitting first with 692 votes - around 45 per cent of the total vote. Liberal candidate Shirley Robinson sits second with 406 votes, about 27 per cent of the ballot, while Conservative candidate Charlotte Larocque has 308 votes, 20 per cent of votes cast. The two remaining candidates, the Green Party's Ralph McLean and People's Party's Dylan Young, are scrapping it out for fourth place with around three and five per cent of the vote respectively.
In Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River, Conservative incumbent Gary Vidal is ahead with 17 of 156 polls reporting, garnering 688 votes - about 49 per cent of the total vote. Buckley Belanger, the Liberal candidate, sits second with 398 votes (about 25 per cent) while NDP candidate Harmonie King is third with 19 per cent of the vote and 307 total votes.
It is still too early to predict winners in either riding, as of 9:30 p.m. local time. Results will slowly trickle in throughout the evening, with results often able to be projected closer to midnight.
According to Canadian poll aggregator 338Canada, Ashton entered the election with greater than a 99 per cent chance of winning reelection in Churchill-Keewatinook Aski. The only other candidate with a possibility of victory was Robinson, who had a non-zero chance of winning - all three other candidates did not have a percentage.
Meanwhile, the odds in Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River were much different, with all three of the main party candidates having a considerable chance of victory. The 338Canada odds predicted a 42 per cent chance of winning for NDP candidate King, 39 per cent for Vidal and around 18 per cent for Belanger. The projections for the riding's vote count have all three candidates' expected vote count well within each others' margins of error, showing a three-way race.
