The Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) and provincial government announced what they are planning province-wde during the COVID-19 outbreak - - hope for the best, plan for the worst.
Once the disease hits its peak, both groups are bracing for possibly between 3,000 and 8,000 deaths in Saskatchewan alone, between 153,000 and 408,000 total cases and between 20 and 200 daily admissions to intensive care.
The models are not meant as predictions. The numbers provide a blueprint for planning for health officials during the outbreak.
"We are on a better trajectory than in our 'What if?' scenarios, but at the moment, we do not have enough information to know for certain," said SHA senior medical information officer Jenny Basran in an April 8 media briefing.
The provincial plan was released to the public April 8. Projections, like those in other provinces and countries, are based on multiple different scenarios. The document uses three different scenarios to describe what Saskatchewan health workers and facilities may face - a low range model (called the Wuhan, Imperial model in the report), a medium range model (called the low Italy range) and a high range model (described in early Canadian estimates).
Each model assumes the province continues at its current level of testing, tracing and social distancing.
"Modeling data released today by the SHA indicates that the key variable for saving lives and protecting health care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic is public compliance with prescribed isolation measures, physical distancing, effective hand washing and staying home, whenever and wherever possible," said a provincial press release.
The total number of possible COVID-19 cases changes from model to model. Under the low range model, the province anticipated 153,000 total cases, 60 hospital admissions a day and 3,075 total deaths in Saskatchewan. Those numbers increase in each of the other two models - 262,000 total cases, 205 hospital admissions a day and 5,260 total deaths in the medium range model and 408,000 total cases, 710 admissions a day and 8,370 deaths in the high range model.
The low range scenario includes estimates of 390 COVID-19 patients province-wide requiring acute care at the same time at the disease's peak. One hundred and twenty of those 390 people would need to be in intensive care, including up to 95 per cent requiring ventilation.
The medium range scenario would see as many as 1,265 people in acute care due to COVID-19 at the same time, with about 380 people in intensive care and many of those on ventilators. In the high range scenario, as many as 4,265 patients would be in acute care in Saskatchewan at the same time and 1,280 people in need of intensive care.
The report includes a number of what are seen as key strategies to combat COVID-19 - increasing testing, catching positive cases early, enforcing orders from the provincial chief public health officer and expanding contact tracing, data gathering, HealthLine 811, virtual care, testing and assessment sites.
Those strategies, officials say, are already begining to help fight the disease in Saskatchewan, but the battle is far from over.
“Our job as a health care system is to provide care for those in need and to be ready for any scenario,” said SHA CEO Scott Livingstone.
“While we understand Canadian data is starting to show some hopeful signs about flattening the curve on COVID-19, it is critical to remember not to be complacent. We need to continue to escalate our response to ensure we are prepared for the worst case scenarios and we need the public to help us avoid those scenarios.”
