Liberals, Conservatives, NDP pick northern federal election candidates for Manitoba, Sask.

Canada's three biggest parties have all selected their northern candidates for next month's federal election.

In the north, two federal seats - one covering Flin Flon and northern Manitoba, one covering Creighton, Denare Beach, Pelican Narrows and other northern Saskatchewan communities - will be up for grabs, two of 338 seats in the House of Commons. Northern Manitoba and northern Saskatchewan are covered by two ridings - the Churchill-Keewatinook Aski riding covers all of northern Manitoba, going from Flin Flon to Churchill to the northern border with Nunavut, while all of northern Saskatchewan is covered by the Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River riding.

In Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, three candidates have come forward as of August 19. NDP incumbent Niki Ashton will run again for northern Manitoba’s spot in the House of Commons. Ashton has won the seat in four straight federal elections - in 2008, 2011, 2015 and 2019 - and will aim to win the seat for the fifth time. Ashton is the now-former federal NDP critic for public ownership and transport, as well as the former deputy critic for women and gender equality. Ashton was removed from her critic posts in January after revealing she left Canada at the height of the COVID-19 second wave to travel to Greece and see her ill grandmother. Ashton is now the only incumbent NDP MP who has no critic or deputy critic posts.

The Conservatives have selected former Thompson Chamber of Commerce president, entrepreneur and University College of the North campus manager Charlotte Larocque as their candidate in the northern riding. Larocque, originally from Leaf Rapids, has no previous experience in electoral politics.

The federal Liberals named their candidate August 17, picking Cross Lake Band of Indians (Pimicikamak Okimawin) councillor Shirley Robinson. Robinson, a former acting chief and vice-chief for the band, has been on the community’s council for 14 years and has been elected five times. Robinson was the acting chief of the Cross Lake band in 2016, when the community was rocked by a string of suicides – Robinson and the band declared a state of emergency and called for federal assistance, receiving international media attention in the process. Robinson was also acting chief when a $40 million health centre was announced for the community later that year.

Northern Sask.

Across the border, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River has four candidates confirmed by their federal party - the Conservative incumbent, Gary Vidal, will run for re-election. The former eight-year mayor of Meadow Lake ran for and won the federal seat in 2019. In the two years since, Vidal has sat as the Tories’ shadow minister of Indigenous Services.

The NDP has also selected their candidate, picking Harmonie King, a mental health and youth development advocate and social worker from the Meadow Lake area. King ran for the Saskatchewan NDP in the 2020 provincial election, losing to Saskatchewan Party cabinet minister Jeremy Harrison. King also ran for the treasurer position with the Metis Nation-Saskatchewan earlier this year, losing that spot to John Robert LaFontaine.

The Liberal Party confirmed their candidate August 15, selecting now-former Saskatchewan NDP MLA Buckley Belanger. Belanger has represented the northwestern Saskatchewan provincial riding of Athabasca since 1995, first as a Liberal MLA and later with the NDP. The former mayor of Ile-a-la-Crosse and ex-MBC Radio journalist resigned his provincial seat August 15 to officially pursue the Liberal nomination. Belanger is the longest-serving Indigenous MLA in Saskatchewan’s history.

The Green Party has also selected their northern Saskatchewan candidate, picking Nasser Dean Chalifoux, an environmental activist and Indigenous advocate from the RM of Torch River, located near Nipawin.

No other candidates have been officially announced in the riding for any other political parties.

Polling

According to online poll aggregator 338Canada, the two northern ridings are anticipated to have very different election results. While Churchill-Keewatinook Aski is likely to go orange yet again, another three-way race is in the cards for Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River.

The website is predicting, as of August 19, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski's outcome to be “NDP likely”, giving Ashton and the NDP a 97 per cent chance of victory. Meanwhile, the Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River race is listed as a “toss-up” between the three major parties. The Conservatives and Vidal are expected, as of August 19, to garner 33.6 per cent of the vote, with the Liberals and Belanger and NDP and King likely to get around 30 per cent - but all three parties and candidates are well within the margin of error.

Vidal is currently given a 60 per cent chance of winning by 338Canada, with Belanger having a 20 per cent chance and King having a 19 per cent chance.

338Canada weighs different national and regional polls to create predictions for all 338 federal Canadian ridings. The election odds for each riding are based off previous electoral performance and riding-by-riding polling data throughout the campaign.

Recent history

In the 2019 federal election, Flin Flon, Creighton and Denare Beach all voted predominantly for Conservative candidates. Voting results at Flin Flon’s 11 polling stations showed 1,077 votes for Tory candidate Cyara Bird, compared to 951 for Ashton, while Vidal received more than half the votes cast in the two Saskatchewan communities.

Despite Flin Flon going blue, Ashton comfortably won the riding, receiving 11,919 of 23,687 votes cast – just over half of all votes. Bird finished second with 5,616 votes, while then-Liberal candidate Judy Klassen received 4,714 votes.

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, traditionally a three-way race between all three major Canadian parties, went to Vidal in 2019, with 42 per cent of votes cast – 11,531 out of 27,257 – turning up Tory blue. The second- and third-place candidates, incumbent Georgina Jolibois for the NDP and the Liberals’ Tammy Cook-Searson, each came away with over 7,000 votes.

The Conservatives, NDP and Liberals have all held the riding at least once since 2006 – Gary Merasty, originally from Pelican Narrows, won a byelection for the Liberals in 2006, while Tories Rob Clarke and Vidal held the seat from 2008-2015 and from 2019 to present respectively. Jolibois won the riding for the NDP in 2015 before being voted out in 2019.